President Trump’s Second Term: What To Expect

With the Jan. 20 inauguration complete, President Donald Trump begins a second term in the White House and has commenced efforts to staff the administration. Senate Republicans have gained four seats, resulting in a 53-47 majority, which is facilitating the confirmation process. Additionally, House Republicans have successfully maintained their majority, thus providing the Republican Party with control over both the administrative and legislative branches of government.

Nominees for most key positions have already been announced. Incoming administrations often prioritize roles in defense and national security, Treasury and economic policy, homeland security, and intelligence. Per historical norm, many senior officials of the previous administration have resigned, allowing the Trump administration to begin implementing its policy priorities. Historically, every new administration has had at least one nominee who did not receive enough votes in the Senate, so it’s possible that not all announced nominees will be confirmed.

New congressional leadership will influence the facilitation of the Trump administration’s agenda and priorities. Senate Republicans have a new majority leader for the first time in decades, while House leadership remains unchanged. Key committees in both chambers will have new chairpersons with new agendas, but those committees are expected to align closely with the priorities of the White House. Notably, the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee will both have new chairs.

Congressional leaders have announced their initial legislative focus will include taxes, immigration enforcement, and potentially tariffs. They plan to use a tactic called budget reconciliation to address these priorities. This procedure enables the Senate to bypass the usual requirement of 60 votes for passing legislation but limits what policies can be included. Budget reconciliation permits changes in specific spending and tax accounts, provided these changes do not increase the deficit beyond 10 years and do not fundamentally alter the authorizing law that created these accounts.

The reconciliation process requires two steps: 1) passing a budget resolution to set revenue targets and giving committees instructions and then 2) writing and enacting legislation in compliance with the budget resolution. The first step is often quicker and can be done within weeks of Congress settling on a tactical path forward. Once enacted, the budget will indicate feasible options for what could be included in the final reconciliation package. Extending current tax law, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from the first Trump administration, could add up to $4.6 trillion in deficits.

The inclusion of border enforcement funding or tariffs will be governed by the rules and limitations of the reconciliation process, which stipulate that Congress cannot increase the deficit beyond the budget window. The details of these policies will remain flexible as Congress manages competing priorities within the constraints of the budget process.

What will the first several months of the Trump administration look like? Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration have expressed their plans to implement – within the first 100 days – the campaign promises made. This includes increasing immigration enforcement and prioritizing the deportation of undocumented migrants. Regulatory agency heads have been instructed to halt, review, or reverse most activities initiated by the previous administration. The continuation of any regulatory action will depend on how far along it was in the process, but the Trump campaign vocally opposed President Joe Biden’s administration’s policies.

The Trump administration aims to reform the government extensively. President Trump has appointed Elon Musk to lead the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), “to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.” In addition, executive agencies will be led by personnel who support Trump’s vision of government.