Urbanization experts share lessons from the coronavirus pandemic and offer insights on the future of work and the return – or not – to the office
The future of work and the future of cities are intertwined – as they always have been. Traditionally, people have been magnetized to urban centers as they offer an abundance of work opportunities, culture and unique experiences.
But when lockdowns were enforced around the world to halt the spread of the coronavirus, and business leaders realized that technology-enabled remote working is a viable – and cost-effective – alternative to office life, it triggered a debate about the role of the physical workplace and, in turn, the meaning of cities.
In mid-2020, there were reports of an urban exodus, or reverse-migration, from the world’s leading cities, including London and New York. Some argued that, with theaters, galleries and other art venues closed, along with restaurants and bars – some permanently – and with brick-and-mortar retailers struggling, many city centers have lost their soul.
However, with coronavirus vaccines being made available in 2021, business leaders must now make smart decisions about the future of work. Will a return to the office, and the city, boost innovation and growth, and how could – and should – cities be revived, redrawn and revolutionized?
To answer these vital questions about the future of cities, the Art of Smart moderated an insightful discussion between experts Barrie Barton, Co-Founder of Right Angle Studio in Australia – established in 2005 to “understand and improve life in our cities” – and Peter Hogg, UK Cities Director of global design, engineering and management consulting company Arcadis, which has 350 offices across 40 countries.
COVID-19 fallout exposed problems within cities and societies
Barrie Barton (BB): The coronavirus pandemic has taken an X-ray of society and shown us where we are sick. It’s also like a time machine and has taken us forward to where problems that were latent are now acute, whether that’s deep-rooted social inequality, or the glaring reality that, to be successful, businesses need to be good at generating clicks. There has been a lot of panic merchantry and directionless responses to what the pandemic means – and there’s danger in that. Now, with vaccines on the way, we find ourselves at a point where we can go back to how things were. It would be lazy to snap back to urban tropes that don’t serve us well. If we go back to how things were quickly – as with happened after the September 11 attacks – it would be a huge failure. As a society, we have this unique point to take stock, look at what’s worked and what hasn’t, and move forward to address some of the fissures.
Peter Hogg (PH): The pandemic holds the mirror up to a really unattractive picture of social inequality. I believe that as a community and as a society there is a genuine drive to change that. It won’t happen overnight, but there will be a seismic shift to the point where it is no longer morally acceptable to turn a blind eye. One of the things we are beginning to see in London and most cities in northern Europe is a fresh approach to climate change because of the pandemic. We are moving from soundbites to action. I don’t think we are going to see a radical disassembly of cities, or a frantic move to change the physical form. The central business district and retail areas will still remain, and evolve. I think the significant change all organizations are going to need to respond to is how they use their force and capabilities to take positive steps to address climate change.
The rise of the 15-minute community?
PH: I believe we are going to see a trend where big cities become more polycentric and less hub-and-spoke. We might see developments – like new towns – that take place outside the urban area, but support the urban area. They might be the nucleus around which new cities grow. There are some risks [with the 15-minute community] but there are some benefits, and Arcadis is exploring that model with an open mind.
In praise of cities – and why their appeal will endure
BB: Cities are the greatest triumph of our species. Great cities are liberal, tolerant and experimental. I’m fascinated by how they evolve and what they offer their inhabitants. However, cities don’t improve organically, or naturally. We need to invest our money, time and intelligence to try and lead them to a better place.
PH: Cities are here to stay – don’t write them off as dying stars. Humankind’s desire to agglomerate, to come together, to grow, to focus, to build on each other’s achievements will remain undiminished. I think what we are going to see is a move towards cities having to be a great deal clearer about what they have to offer to their citizens and communities, and also other cities and countries. Because a city is not a thing on its own: it’s part of a very complex ecosystem of other cities and communities. If you want to continue the vibrancy in your city you have to keep that connectivity going.